Real-world analysis and future trends of parkinson's disease burden and all-cause mortality in Shanghai Pudong: a population-based study of 3.17 million people.
Real-world analysis and future trends of parkinson's disease burden and all-cause mortality in Shanghai Pudong: a population-based study of 3.17 million people.
Where did the research take place?
The study site has not been established. Author addresses may differ from where the research occurred.
Shanghai, CN · Author affiliation
Department of Neurology, Shanghai University of Medicine & Health Sciences Affiliated Zhoupu Hospital, 1500 Zhouyuan Rd.,Pudong, Shanghai, 201318, China.Location evidence
Pudong, CN · Author affiliation
Department of Neurology, Shanghai University of Medicine & Health Sciences Affiliated Zhoupu Hospital, 1500 Zhouyuan Rd.,Pudong, Shanghai, 201318, China.Location evidence
Xuhui, CN · Author affiliation
Department of Health Management Centre, Zhongshan Hospital, Shanghai Medical College of Fudan University, 180 Fenglin Rd. Xuhui, Shanghai, 200032, China.Location evidence
Yueyang, CN · Author affiliation
Department of Neurology, Yueyang Hospital of Integrated Traditional Chinese and Western Medicine, Shanghai University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, 110 Ganhe Rd., Shanghai, 200437, China. lvhuihui@shutcm.edu.cn.Location evidence
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Original abstract
BackgroundTo assess all-cause Parkinson's disease (PD)-related and PD-specific mortality trends and years of life lost (YLL) in Shanghai Pudong (3.17 million population) from 2005-2021, and project future burdens through 2035.MethodsUsing population-level mortality data including 4,218 PD-related deaths among 362,558 total deaths, we calculated crude mortality rates (CMR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRW), and YLL. Temporal trends were analyzed by the average annual percent change (AAPC) via Joinpoint regression, demographic impacts via decomposition methods, and future projections via ARIMA models.ResultsPD-related CMR and ASMRW were 8.74/100,000 and 2.76/100,000, respectively, with 31,904.41 YLL. PD-specific mortality rates (CMR: 3.76/100,000; ASMRW: 1.25/100,000) accounted for 14,532.50 YLL. Individuals aged ≥ 80 years exhibited highest mortality burden (CMR: 112.29/100,000). Cerebrovascular disease (18.94%) and coronary heart disease (13.54%) were leading comorbidities. Temporal analyses revealed significant annual increases in ASMRW (AAPC = 8.38%, P < 0.001) and YLL rates (AAPC = 7.03%, P < 0.001), driven predominantly by population aging (AAPC = 30.73%, P < 0.001). Projections indicate continued rises in ASMRW (AAPC = 1.49%) and YLL rates (AAPC = 3.49%) through 2035 (P < 0.001).ConclusionsPD imposes increasing mortality burden in Shanghai Pudong, with population aging as the primary driver. Multi-departmental interventions targeting early diagnosis, comorbidity management, and medical infrastructure are urgently needed.Trial registrationClinical trial number: not applicable.